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North Korea Revives an Old Tactic in Threat to Cancel Talks
Kim Jong-un of North Korea, left, and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea at Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone last month. ( CreditPool photo
By Choe Sang-Hun and Jane Perle)
Kim Jong-un of North Korea, left, and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea at Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone last month.
May 16, 2018
SEOUL, South Korea — After presenting himself as a statesman, and changing his role from tyrant to moderate on the world stage, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has revealed his bottom line: He will not give up his nuclear weapons as President Trump has demanded.
In warning on Wednesday that Mr. Kim could withdraw from his planned June 12 summit meeting with Mr. Trump in Singapore, Pyongyang demanded that Washington remove military threats against North Korea, and it suspended talks with South Korea over its joint military exercises with the United States. The abrupt change from the North, which for months had been calling for dialogue, threatened to dash hopes for a breakthrough in the tensions that pushed the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war last year.
Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said North Korea had begun to fear looking weak by making unilateral concessions, like its moratorium on missile tests and its decision to shut down its nuclear test site. He noted that the United States, rather than offering concessions of its own, has vowed only to keep up its maximum pressure on the North if it fails to quickly denuclearize.
“The last thing Kim Jong-un can afford is to look like he is surrendering his nuclear weapons,” Mr. Koh said.
If North Korea’s tough statements on Wednesday caught officials in Seoul and Washington off guard, they also reflected a well-established North Korean stance, with Mr. Kim saying his country wants to enter talks with the United States as an equal nuclear power.
Few analysts said North Korea would ultimately go so far as to cancel the Singapore meeting. Rather, the threat to withdraw was an attempt to raise the price that Washington would have to pay to get any significant concessions on the North’s nuclear program, analysts said.
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“The goal is to change the subject from what the U.S. wants to talk about — denuclearization — to Pyongyang’s preferred focus: U.S. military exercises, the U.S. ‘threat’ and by extension the U.S.-South Korea alliance,” said Evans J.R. Revere, who directed Korean policy at the State Department during the administration of President George W. Bush.
North Korea’s abrupt change in tone began Wednesday, when it indefinitely postponed high-level talks with South Korea, blaming the joint military drills known as Max Thunder with the United States that began last week.
Hours later, the North’s first vice foreign minister, Kim Kye-gwan, attacked Mr. Trump’s hawkish new national security adviser, John R. Bolton, for demanding that North Korea quickly dismantle its nuclear facilities and ship them out, as Libya did more than a decade ago, before the United States lifts sanctions and provides other benefits.
That demand clashes with the North’s stated strategy. When Mr. Kim met with President Xi Jinping of China twice in the past two months, he sought support for his country’s longstanding demand that Washington and its allies take “synchronized” steps to satisfy the North’s security needs in return for any “phased” moves toward denuclearization.
North Korea turned to China because, as the North’s biggest economic benefactor, it can provide the best economic and political cover as Mr. Kim confronts Mr. Trump over his demands.
When South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, met China’s premier, Li Keqiang, in Tokyo a week ago, the two urged Washington to address North Korea’s concerns about its long-term security.
John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser, at the White House this month.CreditDoug Mills/The New York Times
The two leaders agreed that “rather than asking North Korea to make unilateral concessions, the international community, including the United States, should actively participate in guaranteeing a bright future for the North, including security guarantees and assistance for economic development, if it denuclearizes completely,” Mr. Moon’s office said at the time.
But Mr. Trump has yet to clarify how he would reconcile the North Korean demand with his own push to quickly achieve a “permanent, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization” of North Korea. Instead, his top aides have sent out confusing signals.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who met with Mr. Kim twice in Pyongyang in recent weeks, said that if North Korea took bold action to denuclearize quickly, “the United States is prepared to work with North Korea to achieve prosperity on the par with our South Korean friends.”
“We will have to provide security assurances, to be sure,” Mr. Pompeo said. “This has been a trade-off that has been pending for 25 years.”
But Mr. Bolton was more blunt, calling for “getting rid of all the nuclear weapons, dismantling them, taking them to Oak Ridge, Tenn.,” where the Department of Energy operates a nuclear complex and Libya’s dismantled nuclear program ended up. He said that if the North Koreans “want to become a normal nation like South Korea, the quicker they denuclearize, the quicker that will come.”
Analysts say the Americans were sending mixed signals to the North.
“North Korea is upset how Trump is playing it — Pompeo playing the good cop and Bolton the bad cop,” said Kim Dong-yub, an analyst at the Seoul-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor fighter jet in Gwangju, South Korea, on Wednesday.CreditReuters
North Korea’s fierce antagonism toward Mr. Bolton vividly illustrates its deep mistrust of the United States. When Mr. Bolton was under secretary of state in Mr. Bush’s administration, he called the North’s Kim dynasty “tyrannical.” North Korea returned the insult, calling him “human scum.”
Mr. Bolton’s attacks have been deeply insulting to the North Korean government, which portrays its leader as a godlike figure, analysts said. Although Mr. Kim keeps his hard-line military under tight control, appearing weak in a confrontation with Washington could be devastating to his image among his soldiers, who consider the United States their archenemy.
Mr. Kim’s government has told its people that his nuclear weapons will protect them from suffering the fate of Libya or Iraq, whose governments collapsed under pressure from “big powers,” in Pyongyang’s words. At the same time, Mr. Kim has promised his people they will not have to tighten their belts again. He seeks to get sanctions lifted so he can rebuild the economy, but he must avoid looking as though he is succumbing to Washington’s pressure or its economic incentives, analysts said.
Cheon Seong-whun, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said North Korea’s main goal in coming negotiations with the United States was to “weaken the influence of American forces in Korea.”
One aim is to try to stop the United States military from bringing nuclear-capable aircraft or vessels to Korea. That was why on Wednesday the North vehemently protested South Korean news reports that American B-52 long-range bombers and F-22 stealth fighter jets had participated in the current drills, Mr. Cheon said.
The United States military denied the participation of B-52s, saying that Washington and Seoul had decided not to include them in the exercises “some time ago,” said Col. Chad Carroll, a spokesman for American forces in South Korea. But the participation of F-22 stealth jets will not be affected by the North Korean protest, the South’s military said.
In China, analysts said that Mr. Kim’s about-face was a return to his normal behavior. The trajectory of the past several months was uncharacteristic, they said.
”Kim Jong-un has been soft like a dove, but he also has a side to him like an eagle,” said Wu Qiang, a writer on current affairs and former lecturer at Tsinghua University. “This change of mind is more normal.”
Choe Sang-Hun reported from Seoul, and Jane Perlez from Beijing. Motoko Rich contributed reporting from Tokyo.